PRA for AI Framework

Adapting Probabilistic Risk Assessment for AI

A Taxonomy for More Comprehensive AI Hazard Identification

Identifying the diverse and complex ways advanced AI systems might cause harm requires moving beyond selective or ad-hoc lists of potential risks. The Aspect-Oriented Taxonomy of AI Hazards provides the essential structure for systematically exploring the hazard space and identifying consequential threats. This avoids reliance on ad-hoc lists, ensuring more comprehensive hazard discovery tailored to the AI system under study.

A First-Principles Approach

This taxonomy decomposes AI risk based on a systems-thinking perspective, analyzing the AI entity, its environment, and their interaction. It organizes potential hazards across four high-level aspect categories (TL0):

  1. Capabilities: The inherent abilities of the AI system (e.g., reasoning, learning, agency).
  2. Domain Knowledge: Specific expertise possessed by the AI that could enable harm (e.g., cybersecurity vulnerabilities, biology).
  3. Affordances: How the AI interacts with its environment (e.g., API access, deployment context, system interfaces).
  4. Impact Domains: The sociotechnical areas where harms ultimately manifest (e.g., individuals, society, the biosphere).

Hierarchical Structure

These categories are broken down hierarchically through five Taxonomy Levels (TL0 to TL4), moving from broad categories to specific aspect-adjacent hazards:

  • Aspect Categories (TL0): The four main categories (Capabilities, Domain Knowledge, Affordances, Impact Domains).
  • Aspect Groups (TL1): Major subdivisions within the Aspect Categories.
  • Aspects (TL2): Specific system characteristics or elements within each group.
  • Hazard Clusters (TL3): Related groups of hazards, potentially spanning multiple Aspects.
  • AI Hazards (TL4): Individual potential harms or vulnerabilities identified through analysis.

Linking System Properties to Real-World Harms

Conceptually, the taxonomy connects the system's inherent properties—termed 'source aspects' (within Capabilities, Domain Knowledge, Affordances)—to the contexts where harms ultimately manifest, known as 'terminal aspects' (within Impact Domains).

This structure guides the identification of specific 'aspect-adjacent hazards'. These are the potential harms or vulnerabilities originating directly from, or enabled by, the system's source aspects, or the vulnerabilities within terminal aspects through which risks manifest before final impact. By explicitly mapping these connections, the taxonomy enables assessors using bottleneck analysis and risk pathway modeling to systematically probe potential failure modes from both ends of the causal chain (i.e., from system capabilities towards societal impacts, and tracing back from potential impacts to enabling system characteristics).

Benefits

This taxonomy:

Explore the Taxonomy (TL0-TL2)

The taxonomy of aspect-oriented AI Hazards is presented below. In this visualization:

Examples of Hazard Clusters (TL3) and AI Hazards (TL4) are expected to be added to this webpage over time.

Capability
Reasoning
Deductive Reasoning
Inductive Reasoning
Pathfinding
Generative Inferential Reasoning
Moral Reasoning
Integrative Cognitive Orchestration
Recursion
Frequency of Learning
Agency
Autonomy
Situational Awareness
Meta-agency
Autonomous System Extension
Autonomous Data Management
Persistence of Intent
General Knowledge Structure
World Model Richness
Semantic Knowledge
Descriptive Knowledge
Conditional Knowledge
Episodic Knowledge
Procedural Knowledge
Agentic Knowledge
Knowledge Plasticity
Environment Interaction
World Accessibility
Physical Actuation
Sensor Understanding
Programmatic Tool Use
Socio-cultural Actuation
Richness of Engagement
Psychosocial Navigation
Multimodal Engagement
Cognitive Offloading
Multilinguality
Capacity & Resolution
Domain Knowledge
High-risk Knowledge Domain
Software & AI Engineering
Public Security & Critical Systems
Physical Sciences & Engineering
Life & Environmental Sciences
Social Sciences
Affordance
Operational Affordance
System Cybersecurity
Release Process
Tool Accessibility
Access Control
Speed & Scale
Resource Access
Impact Domain
Individual
Bodily Structure
Psychological & Cognitive
Economic & Opportunities
Privacy & Security
Autonomy & Agency
Biological Processes & Homeostasis
Societal
Societal Infrastructure & Institutions
Collective Psychology & Epistemics
Resource Usage & Distribution
Privacy & Security Standards
Collective Autonomy & Governance
Social Cohesion & Cultural Norms
Biosphere
Biodiversity & Ecosystem Structure
Ecosystem Processes & Life Cycles
Resource Distribution & Consumption Patterns
Ecological Thresholds & Resilience
Species Adaptation & Ecosystem
Global Biosphere Dynamics